My answer is, the American people, beginning with the voters in New Hampshire. Last year, I tried to draft Powell into running, but failed. In the first-in-the-nation primary, however, Republicans there gave none of the GOP contenders even 30 percent, while 37 percent told exit pollsters they would have voted for Powell. As Powell never set foot in New Hampshire, nor spent a nickel there, that was the important fact of the primary.

Even if Pat Buchanan flames out, his rise underscores the public’s anxieties about the future and dissatisfaction with the current field. There’s no doubt the Buchanan moment has given Powell pause. “Pat sometimes gives out messages of intolerance, which I think is very unfortunate,” the general said publicly last week. “This is not the time for intolerance.” Buchanan is what Powell is not: a leader of culturally extremist forces. He is a Beltway talk-show warrior who thrives on conflict, not on solving problems. Powell’s strengths are the opposite. Like Dwight Eisenhower before him, Powell is an outsider to partisan politics, a man who has spent his career making things happen. The general talks about turning a divided America into a family again. Buchanan and his fellow pols don’t deliver this message, or even speak this language.

That is why Powell must reconsider his autumn decision to forgo the 1996 campaign. It is too late for a GOP primary effort–filing deadlines have passed–but not too late for Powell to signal that he would welcome a draft movement that would culminate at a brokered Republican National Convention in August.

Duty is calling. Buchanan is threatening to split the party, taking “his people” for a walk. Should he win the nomination, it seems certain that he would repeat the Goldwater debacle of 1964. Meanwhile, it appears increasingly likely that Bob Dole is doomed to join a distinguished company of senators–Henry Clay, Daniel Webster, John C. Calhoun, Bob Taft–who never made it to the top. Neither Lamar Alexander nor Steve Forbes is uniting the party.

So the New Hampshire primary might turn out to be the most fateful night of Powell’s life, just as election night in 1948 was the key to Eisenhower’s career. Ike had said no to Republican entreaties to challenge Harry Truman that year. Ike assumed Tom Dewey would win in ‘48, then be re-elected in ‘52. By 1956 Ike would be 66, which was then thought to be too old for the rigors of the White House. Eisenhower immediately recognized that Truman’s upset victory put him right back on the spot. He feared the pressure to run in 1952 to save the GOP would be irresistible. And it was.

The same thing will no doubt happen to Powell if Bill Clin-ton wins in November. But neither the Republican profession-als nor the American people want to wait until 2000. Like most Republicans, Democrats and independents, Powell rejects extremes. And Powell could bring African-Americans back to the Party of Lincoln. So long as they vote overwhelmingly Democratic, the Democrats need to do little for blacks – except talk–while the Republicans can ignore them. Powell could change that.

The announcement that he would not run has not simplified his life. His mail is overwhelming. He is routinely mobbed in public. But it is doubtful that he is going to offer himself for the top spot–or even accept the vice presidential nomination.

Still. I told General Powell that I would love to spend a day with him in Abilene, talking about Ike. I said that I wanted to stand at Ike and Mamie’s grave, look him in the eye and say, “General, I guarantee you that Ike died a hap-pier man–and Mamie died a happier woman–because he had served as president.” My words caused him to jerk his head back just a bit, and pause thoughtfully.

After declaring that he would not run, Powell called me and began talking about how difficult the decision had been. I interrupted: “General, I want to tell you a story. When Lewis and Clark reached the junction of the Missouri and the Marias Rivers in the spring of 1805, the rivers looked the same. Thomas Jefferson’s orders were explicit–follow the Missouri to its source. But which one was the Missouri? The 30 men of the Corps of Discovery–river men all – said it was the right-hand fork. Captains Lewis and Clark said, “No, it is the left-hand fork.’ The men replied, “Captains, you are wrong. But we will follow you cheerfully wherever you choose to lead’.”

I told General Powell then that that was the way I, and millions of other Americans, feel about him. I–we–still do. ..MR.-

If Bob Dole were to persuade Colin Powell to be his running mate, 44% of Republicans would be a lot more likely to back Dole for the GOP nomination. ..MR0-