But after 25 years of terrorism and more than 3,200 deaths, peace was not yet at hand in Ulster. Among the tripwires:
The Mideast offered a lesson on how to make peace: start with secret negotiations (in this case, indirect talks between Britain and the IRA) and aim first for an interim deal, with a final settlement to come later. But a sense of impending defeat helped push Yasir Arafat into an accord with Israel. judging from this year’s bombings on the British mainland, the IRA is in no danger of being beaten. And neither side in Ulster has an economic reason for wanting peace. because London pays most of the bills.
Bill Clinton applauded the accord and said he would be “cheering from the sidelines,” which is exactly where Britain wants him to stay. U.S. involvement would only heighten paranoia in Protestant Ulster, which fears the influence of Irish-American Catholics.
Major and Irish Prime Minister Albert Reynolds are sticking their necks out, but so far many key politicians in Northern Ireland remain outside the peace process. Sinn Fein, the legal political arm of the IRA, hasn’t said no, but it hasn’t said yes, either. The Rev. Ian Paisley, leader of the hard-line Protestants, accuses Major of trying to “buy off the fiendish republican scum.” Moderate Protestant politicians are watching cautiously.
The Protestants have killed more people this year than the IRA has, and they have been caught smuggling in vast quantities of arms. They may try to tear down the framework agreement by stepping up their attacks on Catholics. And even if IRA leaders declare a truce to get in on the peace talks, their most radical followers may fight on.
Eventually the Catholics, with their higher birthrate, will outnumber the Protestants in Northern Ireland. But they are not expected to achieve a voting majority for another 50 years. Meanwhile, hard-line attitudes on both sides will challenge the peace process. “There are 101 ways things can go wrong,” admits one of Major’s top advisers. The peacemakers will have to concentrate mightily on the few ways they might slowly and incrementally go right.
