This week Gingrich will be anointed by commentators of all persuasions as the most powerful speaker of the House since the legendary Sam Rayburn. He is, by many objective measurements, the most effective lawmaker since Lyndon Johnson. In the 100 Days that end April 13, the Republicans under Gingrich will have approved more legislation in less time than any House of Representatives since the first 100 days of FDR’s New Deal. Like his illustrious predecessors, Gingrich probably moved too far too fast. LBJ often boasted that he had the votes so he didn’t need to have an argument.
Gingrich has been equally headlong, and almost as arrogant in his rush to tear down the Great Society that LBJ built three decades ago. The result will probably be a whole new batch of unintended consequences.
Whatever the merits of the “Contract With America,” Gingrich has, in just three months, altered the basic course run by government for the past 60 years. Ever since the New Deal, Washington has gradually expanded its powers, regardless of whether the Oval Office was occupied by a Republican or a Democrat. Functioning as a kind of American prime minister, Gingrich has used the legislature to give power back to the states and to begin the painful process of cutting, comparing himself to Charles de Gaulle. It was easy for pundits to dismiss the Georgia congressman - an obscure college professor, paper soldier and C-Span polemicist-as a cloakroom Walter Mitty. But over the past three months Gingrich has not only talked like the War Leaders he so idolizes, he has behaved like one. He has managed to stay above distracting squabbles and to stay focused on winning the larger struggle. He is not indifferent to the particulars of legislative issues, but he has never let the details get in the way as the House methodically passed regulatory and welfare reform and began moving on spending and tax cuts (box).
He began this march of legislation by centralizing control. Ever since the Watergate scandal gave a bad name to concentrated power, the House has been a warren of fractious lawmakers. The first time the committee bosses met after the November election, however, Gingrich effectively neutered them. He had already junked the seniority system and promoted his own loyalists. Now he informed the solons that they would work only on bills that the speaker wanted. The chairmen could not schedule so much as a subcommittee hearing without first asking the permission of the House leadership. When one chairman privately informed Gingrich that his committee could not meet the contract’s rushed deadline for passing legislation, Gingrich dropped his normally jovial manner. “If you can’t do it,” he said coldly, “I will find someone who will.” Each Republican member of the Appropriations Committee-the chief dispenser of congressional pork -was required to sign a “letter of fidelity.” The “loyalty oath,” as it was immediately dubbed, pledged the members to cut the budget as much as Gingrich wanted.
While Gingrich was disciplining his followers, he had trouble controlling his own penchant for mouthing off. During a speech to the Republican National Committee on Jan. 20, carried live on CNN, Gingrich lashed out at Hillary Clinton for greed, denounced public broadcasting for airing “anti-Semitic and racist propaganda” and scorned Democrat Barney Frank, “who hates me.” On the ride back to Capitol Hill, Gingrich exulted, “We are a happy band of Vikings, who don’t mind a fight!” But the speech played as a temper tantrum on national TV
So Gingrich and his inner circle decided to abandon spontaneity. No more press conferences as he walked down the hall. At public appearances, he would give his speech and leave. The answer to all questions about his controversial book deal or the House ethics committee investigation against him was “ask Tony Blankley.” Spokesman Blankley’s instructions were to be “reasonably dismissive.” And no more talking to camera crews staked out mornings at his Capitol Hill house. Gingrich had spoken once to them, and three times as many cameras appeared the next day.
The speaker is fascinated by different leadership models, which he tries on as the situation demands. He considers himself to be a student of W Edwards Deming, the late management guru who was a celebrity in Japanese business circles. The basic idea is to let everyone talk and then decide. LISTEN, LEARN, HELP, LEAD, reads the aphorism on Gingrich’s office wall. The gun lobby immediately tested Gingrich’s patience, demanding that the crime bill be amended to repeal a ban on assault weapons. Gingrich had to pay attention, since the Republicans owed their majority in part to the support and funding of the National Rifle Association. Majority Leader Dick Armey warned, however, that a fight over the gun ban would Sink the crime bill. Gingrich needed to find a way out. He proposed a compromise: a vote to repeal the assault-weapons ban - but only after the contract had passed. It was a useful fix, and Gingrich used it again when the right-to-life lobby threatened to disrupt the 100 Days with anti-abortion amendments.
Gingrich could also play the dictatorial American CEO. A month into the 100 Days, he brought in eight corporate executives, including the chairmen of General Electric and Union Pacific, who had downsized their companies. Their advice was to push further than most Republican lawmakers wanted to go. “Don’t listen to the experts who say it can’t be done,” he was advised. The CEOs’ biggest regret about their own companies, Gingrich later told his staff. was that they had not gone far enough.
So when John Kasich, the chairman of the Budget Committee, told Gingrich that he could not produce a balanced budget by the year 2002, for the technical reason that the budget could be projected out for only five years, Gingrich rolled over him. “How many in this room think we should be trying to get to zero in year seven?” Gingrich demanded of House leaders. Everyone raised a hand except Kasich. “Done,” said Gingrich.
Gingrich understood that some tasks have to be delegated. Lyndon Johnson could twist arms; Sam Rayburn could reach into the drawer full of cash he kept in his desk. In a more open age, Gingrich had to rely on the power of interest groups to stir up voters to besiege congressmen with letters and phone calls. Some of these groups, like the Christian Coalition, are genuine mass movements, but some, like Citizens for a Sound Economy (funded largely by such corporations as Cigna Insurance and R.J. Reynolds tobacco), are contrived. The artificial grass-roots movements are known by insiders as “Astroturf.” Gingrich used acres of Astroturf to pave the way for a bill to limit lawsuits. An expensive PR campaign made lawyers look like greedy villians who were driving up the cost of everything from Little League to a cup of coffee. The bill passed easily.
Gingrich did not hesitate to share power with business lobbyists. Key parts of the regulatory-reform bill were drafted by a group called the Alliance for Reasonable Regulation. The group was a who’s who of corporate interests, ranging from the National Pest Control Association to the Alabama Oilman’s Association. The practical effect of the bill would be to gut environmental landmarks like the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. Gingrich rushed the bill through the House before many environmentalists had a chance to react. Three weeks after the bill passed, Gingrich invited a half-dozen state environmental officials to his office, and asked them for their comments on the bill. They outlined their many objections-but wondered why the speaker had even bothered to ask.
In truth, Gingrich was less worried about the specifics of each bill than the overall impact of bringing the contract to a vote. His goal was to show voters that the GOP could break the usual Washington gridlock, that it could begin to deliver on its campaign promises. Equally important, he Rare de needed to convince his own colleagues in the House that he was a winner, so that when the votes got tougher, the support would still be there.
Gingrich knows that the hard part begins after the 100 Days are over. This spring the House takes up the extraordinary challenge of trying to balance the budget-at the same time it offers the middle class a tax cut. Gingrich has spent much of his time over the past few months meeting privately with Appropriations Committee chairman Bob Livingston and Budget Committee chairman Kasich. In December, Livingston and his colleagues on the Appropriations Committee had a sobering experience. Sitting behind a one-way mirror in a room in Baltimore, they had watched a group of 15 average citizens decide how to balance the budget. The “focus group” was unable to decide on a single cut.
This May, Kasich, Livingston and Co. will have to find about $700 billion worth of savings. The only way, they know is to begin cutting back on health benefits for the elderly, a high-risk course for any politician. House Republicans are already divided, between moderates and populists, supply-siders and fiscal conservatives and after next week they will no longer have the contract to bind them.
Gingrich will need all his vision and manipulative skills. The faith of his party was on display last week during a rare losing cause. Gingrich had risen to speak in favor of a constitutional amendment imposing term limits on congressmen. The amendment was sure to fail, and most Republicans suspected that Gingrich, in his ninth term, was not deeply disappointed. Still, the speaker gave a ringing peroration on the ultimate triumph of the will of the people, and promised that he would make term limits the first order of business when the 105th Congress convenes in 1997. The Republicans rose to their feet, cheering and applauding. Gingrich basked in the moment, but he knows that the next few months will test whether he is the historic figure he imagines himself to be.
HOUSE PASSED, SENATE PASSED
Historic legislation lets the president camel particular items in the budget. Makes it harder for lawmakers to hide pork in big spending bills.
What’s next: A House-Senate conference, then Clinton signs it-and starts lowing projects to show he’s tough on waste.
HOUSE PASSED, SENATE REJECTED
The House voted to amend the Constitution to require that federal books be balanced. The Senate came up two votes short. The House this week also unveils $189 billion in excruciating spending cuts to pay for its tax breaks, but will have to whack $500 billion more to actually balance the budget.
What’s next: Republicans promise to make the amendment’s failure an issue in ‘96.
HOUSE PASSED, SENATE PENDING
Only Gingrich’s guile kept the NRA from dooming the bill by attaching a repeal of the assault-weapons ban. The House bill would speed up executions and legitimize more police searches, but it mostly just gives GOP a crime bill of its own.
What’s next: Senate will pass something. But Clinton will likely veto it if the bill doesn’t require finding for 100,000 cops.
HOUSE PASSED, SENATE PENDING
The House bill bans U.S. military forces from serving under U.N. commanders in certain instances, but doesn’t really alter defense priorities.
What’s next: Senate is skeptical about limiting presidential power in foreign affairs.
HOUSE PASSED, SENATE PENDING Ecstatic business lobbyists helped write a bill that makes it much harder for government to regulate health and safety, Requires bureaucrats to do lengthy studies to justify actions. Senate committee, with Clinton’s support, passed a milder version that lets Congress veto bad regulations.
What’s next: Major showdown between House and Senate, and possible Clinton veto.
HOUSE PASSED, SENATE PENDING Bill limits how much courts can award in personal-injury and other lawsuits.
What’s next: Senators fear the House went too far, and will try to pass a narrower bill. Clinton would veto House version.
HOUSE PASSED, SENATE PENDING House passed radical overhaul shifting antipoverty programs to the states. Prohibits giving money to unwed teen mothers, but local governments otherwise have few restrictions or obligations. To appease farm-state reps. food stamps survived.
What’s next: Senate Republicans don’t want to cut benefits to teens, but like the idea of giving more money to states.
HOUSE REJECTED, SENATE PENDING
Only item the House couldn’t pass. Exposed GOP generational splits that couldn’t be reconciled. One Hill reform did pass, requiring Congress to live under the same laws as everyone else.
What’s next: If House firebreathers wouldn’t pass this, the Senate won’t come dose. Gingrich says it’ll be first bill voted on in next Congress.
HOUSE PENDING, SENATE PENDING
Bill repeals a Clinton tax on social security for wealthier elderly. Democrats consider this blatant pandering to seniors, and wish they’d thought of it first. Will pass easily this week.
What’s next: Senate deficit hawks dislike more budget-busting tax cuts, but nobody lobbies like old folks.
HOUSE PENDING, SENATE PENDING
GOP split over whether it a $500per-child tax cut should go to the rich. But leaders kept deficit hawks in line, with help from pols showing public support for cuts. other tax incentives in the Contract’s Family Reinforcement Act, such as those for adoptions, passed easily.
What’s next: Senate probably will scale back tax cuts to ease deficit. Clinton may veto if the rich get too many breaks.
